I think it is fair to say that the quote is a misquote or at least is somewhat misleading. Saying that “now is the right time to buy” has a very different meaning to saying that now is the right time to buy “but at the right price”. I do have respect for Mr Brawn as a former estate agent that called the housing market a bubble but it is a bit of a stretch to say he was the first and only person who worked in the “property sector” to call it as such. I understand he called it when the writing was clearly on the wall in 2006. I recall meeting many people involved in property in 2005 who advised me that the sector was like a house of cards that was about to collapse. Even some of the banks which sold and leased back their own property knew things were turning. One quantity surveyor I met specifically told me the impending housing collapse would drag the whole economy down with it and how right he was! Unfortunately most of these voices didn’t get any publicity but they were there.

Anyone thinking of buying now needs to be very careful about the price they pay.The simple fact is that most prices being paid are still way above where they should be for the house in question. Even with the loss of mortgage interest relief, if prices fall much further back to realistic levels then buyers would be sensible to wait to buy for less. The title of the article gives the impressions that buyers should now buy. This is simply not the case in most instances.

It is also quite possible we may see more than the additional 15% decrease Mr Brawn forecasts. A handful of reasons:
- Higher interest rates will lead to further decreases in prices,
- Decrease in the amount of lending by banks and stricter mortgage criteria
- House prices are still too high compared to income and rents; It is still far cheaper to rent than buy. In a normal market you should be able to buy a house then rent it out to make a profit (without relying on capital appreciation).
-House prices are still not based on supply and demand. There is still a huge oversupply
- The bigger the boom the bigger the bust. Let’s not forget prices in some areas rocketed over 300% in just a few years.
- Higher taxes including property tax and falling incomes etc.

This is not to say that it may make sense to buy in certain areas but overall people need to weigh up whether they are paying over the odds and could end up in negative equity. The buy v rent calculater is a useful tool to asssit buyers but it does not factor in possible further falls in rent. To suggest in the title that now is the right time to buy is incorrect. The price is generally not right.

Thank you for your comment. Charlie’s quote that ‘now is the right time to buy’ is not a misquote and comes from Derek himself and was on the press release that he approved. However, he caveated it with ‘but at the right price’ i.e. once other factors are taken into consideration. One of the major factors that influenced this view is the fact that Mortgage Interest Relief is being phased out. Derek believes that not enough weight is being given to this significant tax break and the large financial savings it gives to first-time-buyers. The other factor is that Derek believes interest rates are due to rise. Because mortgage holders pay more of their interest off in the earlier years of a mortgage, then any subsequent rises will adversely affect new mortgage holders who wait longer to buy.

Derek is aware that prices are overvalued in certain areas, so he is telling people to factor in further price drops. His tool allows people to compare further price drops with forecasts for interest rates etc, thus allowing them to compare the tax benefits, and lower cost of buying now, compared to waiting and buying – it then gives them a ‘buy now’ price or a ‘wait X months and then bid at X’.

Derek was the first person who worked in the property sector to call the housing crash and remains the only one. He was the Head of Research at Savills and gained huge respect for what he did and how the blew the lid on the property sector in his book. The other people you mentioned were not employed in the property sector, as you say they were independent economists, as Derek is now in fact.

Thanks,

Simon.

I think you may have misunderstood the appeals process and I can see why it wasn’t considered a valid appeal. You can’t an appeal re the Revenue & Customers OMSP by giving evidence of sale in a UK based auction, as the UK OMSP price is not comparable with the Irish OMSP. For a valid appeal you need to provide evidence of the same, or very similar cars, currently for sale at a cheaper price in Ireland. Either on line or in forecourts. The onus is on you to provide evidence that on average your car for sale cheaper IN IRELAND than they are estimating as the OMSP.

Good luck,

Simon.

“In January 2010 “Bishop” Pat gave an exclusive interview to the Sunday Tribune in which he proclaimed his “deep love” for his Filipino boyfriend Eduardo Yango (32) and announced that they would be married on 8 February. Other media were referred to Max Clifford, who was handling publicity surrounding the nuptials. His announcement received world-wide publicity – not least in his boyfriend’s homeland. However on the appointed day he had to announce a postponement. “We have had 10 days of intense media interest and, while I have been used to dealing with the media for 25 years, Eduardo has no experience of the media and has found the intrusion very stressful. He is also a very private person and comes from a culture in the Philippines where family and personal issues are handled very discreetly and privately.” (He had apparently forgotten to tell Edwardo about Max Clifford.) They were eventually married in March – albeith with much reduced media coverage.”
http://www.irishsalem.com/individuals/Politicians%20and%20Others/pat-buckley/index.php

Bishop Pat’s love of publicity seems even deeper than his love for his partner. Did he not explain to him about Max Clifford?